tv Your Money CNN December 11, 2011 12:00pm-1:00pm PST
higher taxes for almost all working americans. that possibility could become reality in less than one month. if congress remains unwilling to compromise. welcome to "your money." i'm christine romans. ali velshi is off today. here's what's at stake for the 160 million of you taxpayers, in your paycheck you pay a part of your earnings to the government in a payroll tax. last year there was a payroll tax holiday. you paid a lower rate resulting in maybe 50 bucks extra per pay period in your pocket. if congress can't agree to extend that tax cut by the end of the year, the average american making $50,000 a year stands to pay $1,000 more in taxes in 2012. there seems to be bipartisan support for extending it but as
usual, no agreement on how to pay for it. candy crowley is cnn's chief political correspondent and anchor of "state of the union." political theater aside, you think congress will eventually get this done? >> i absolutely think congress will eventually get this done. particularly because we have seen republicans now saying we even the senate republican leader mitch mcconnell said even if you don't believe that this actually helps the economy, it certainly will help the people that get the break from their payroll taxes. this is just not -- you don't want to go home at christmas and having raised everybody's taxes. not going to happen >> especially when it is your point of view that you are never going to raise taxes on anyone for any reason. that's a little hard to square that. also with us this morning, former "new york times" columnist, distinguished senior fellow. stephen moore, editorial writer at "the wall street journal." candy dealt with, you know, whether congress will extend the payroll tax holiday and it will be ugly. but she thinks it will get done.
what about the idea of whether they should? does a payroll tax holiday -- does it make sense when there is a growing concern about the solvency of social security and medicare? >> it makes sense from a political point of view, which is why i agree with candy that it will get done. i don't think that it makes a great deal of sense in terms of what's going on fiscally in the country. i think it is potentially harmful to social security, poe -- potentially very harmful? >> why? >> very harmful. because you don't have guarantees that this money going to be made up. i mean, when you look at your fica taxes, that money is supposed to go into a social security trust fund, obviously, that money gets shifted around. but -- what's going to happen here is that you are going to get a gross decline in the amount of money. i think that the conservatives will look at it a year from now, two years from now and say -- oh, my goodness. there is an even bigger hole in social security than we thought. we need to do some cut. >> explain to me, isn't that why it costs $200 billion? because isn't basically the taxpayer stepping in for those fica taxes.
>> well, that's right. by the way, i think, candy, as usual, got it exactly right, christine, this is going to get extended. there's of this -- last-minute gymnastics that always goes on on capitol hill. >> gymnastics is something that's fun to watch. >> exact reply. >> this is not gymnastics. >> maybe mud fight or something like that. it is going to happen. real question is should it happen. and you know, believe it or not, i agree with bob. i'm not so sure this should happen. i think that -- if you look at the results of this, over the last year, it is really hard to point to the evidence that this actually created jobs. we had some job growth. we had a pretty good number last week, but it's still not the kind of robust job growth we expect. what republicans are saying, by the way, is i think their message over the next year will be look, let's stop tinkering ask blow up the tax system and start over. >> if they can't agree on $200 billion for a tax holiday, you think they could agree on how to blow it up and
start over? >> first they have to decide on a candidate. >> you talk about tinkering around the edges and payroll tax holiday and economic impact would be. you are right. there is a lot of division about just how important -- some say that it is a thousand -- hundreds of thousands of jobs. others say maybe it is hard to measure a negative what would have happened without it. we do know people would feel it, bob. people would feel it in their paychecks if they didn't have this money. >> people would feel it. it is more important to extend unemployment benefits than the fica tax cut. because the unemployment benefits would go directly to assist people. i don't think that tax cuts do much in terms of job creation. i don't think that it does a great deal to stimulate the economy and maybe, you know, maybe very modestly. but given the deficits we have and given the investment deficits we have in this country, i just don't think it is a wise move. i actually think we need to be raising taxes on people and not just on the rich. and then making investments that would, in fact, help develop a self-sustaining economy. >> now you have disagreement
between the two of us. let's go to the issue whether we should cut the payroll tax or raise unemployment benefits. here is the reason i think bob is absolutely wrong on this. when you raise unemployment benefits you are actually giving someone a payment for not working. at least with the payroll tax cut, bob, you are giving a tax cut for people who do work. the incentive under the one system is not to work and at least under a payroll tax cut you are giving people more -- back for working. >> i don't think it is much of an incentive not to work. >> you might be surprised. >> might be very mild incentive but the people out work are in deep, deep trouble economically. many are facing destitution. the point of giving them extended unemployment benefits is not to boost the economy, but to give a little help to people who are really hurting. >> candy, just -- >> talk to employers. >> this disagreement you see here, is, you know, they're on polar opposites like the body of congress. >> let me tell you something, they're also going to pass an extension of the unemployment benefits. >> you think so.
>> it's christmas, an election year, what more do you need? both those things are going to pass. >> washington is always santa claus. >> isn't that what led us to this in the first place? every time you turn around it is like you can't disappoint your constituencies, that's why we are where we are today and no one can give a temporary tax break and give it back or expanded tax benefits and take it back. >> after a while it doesn't make sense to talk about deficits because if you are not going to raise taxes and if you are going to take people who are really hurting on safety net issues and that sort of thing, there's no way to reasonably bring down the deficits in any sustained way. >> steven -- >> we can't cut spending? look we've got a $4 trillion budget, grown by leaps and bounds over the last couple years. i think you made the key point what's been happening over the last three or four years under republicans and democrats, we keep providing these short-term pieces of candy
to taxpayers, we never have way to pay for it even -- what they're talking about now, one-year tax cut, paid for in the future and we never -- never do any of the stuff in the future. why can't we cut the deficit now? >> candy, it is interesting. talk about that piece of candy. some worry that having a piece of candy tied in any way, shape or form to social security is dangerous. that's what some progressives worry about. they want the -- they want the -- extension of the unemployment benefits and certainly want the payroll tax holiday to continue but they -- they are nervous about tying it to social security. >> well, they are worried about long-term solvency of social security saying look, not that we don't spend social security funds anyway on other things. but this is just something that sort of adds to it and social security, what's inning to me about democrats, some democrats saying i don't know, i'm uneasy with taking out some of the revenue or -- giving back revenue, payroll tax, is that the democrats have really been the one saying, you know, social security right now isn't adding to the deficit. this isn't what we should be
looking at right now. i think more and more you are seeing social security is coming into play. i think that when you are talking about the sorts of things we have been talking about, this really ends up being small stuff. i know $1500 over the course of the year is big, but in order -- anybody i've talked to, including both these guys, know that it's going to take something big. it is the structure, not these little things we keep doing. >> i hope it is not something big that hurts, that's bad. >> bring the troops home from afghanistan. >> there you go. >> that would be something big. >> get rid of the department of education and two other -- >> there you go. >> do you remember how many -- candy, bob, stephen, stay right where you are. both president obama and his potential republican say they're committed to helping the middle class. why are both talking about class warfare this week? that's next on "your money." nyquil: you know i relieve coughs, sneezing, fevers?
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they all dealt a brutal blow to the middle class. should wealthy americans do more to prop up everyone else? it is an issue that promises to be central to a presidential election now less an year away. >> this isn't about class warfare. this is about the nation's welfare. it is about making choices that benefit not just the people who have done fantastically well over the last few decades but that benefits the middle class. and those fighting to get into the middle class. and the economy as a whole. >> you know, this was an important speech for this president. a lot of these at the same time same policies, the sort of we can't wait policies we've seen before, the material is not new but the way it's framed is new. almost like a re-set and a definition of what this election is going to be about for him, is that correct? >> yes. it is almost like campaign speech. yeah. absolutely. i mean, listen, the -- i think
that -- let me say the one big fallacy driving me crazy about this is this idea that somehow the election is going to settle these questions. you know. like how much more should the wealthy give? what exactly is wealthy? and do you believe in what -- republicans see as a redistribution of wealth to a certain extent. i mean, the idea that somehow that's what this election is going to be about and it is, that's true, but anybody who thinks that come, you know, the end of next november, this will all be settled and the american people will have spoken -- are smoking something because it's not going to be settled, it's never settled, an ongoing struggle about the size of the government and role of the electorate. what is the fair share the rich people don't pay their fair share. a lot of discussion after the speech about not paying their fair share. is it not fair if you are 58-year-old person who has made
a lot of money over the course of your career, you are putting your money in muni bonds and parking them there and getting tax breaks of because of 40u you are investing your money or putting money to charity because you are trying to lower your tax bill and that starts to become a question of -- class warfare question that people in the middle start to struggle with because success, is, after all, what the american dream is about. >> well, i disagree with the president in the sense i think this is about class warfare. there's been class warfare for the last 30 years, a war against the working classes and poor. i don't think that the wealthy have paid their fair share. i think that clearly it is documented there has been a sustained war, successful war, against labor unions. workers have not been paid for an increase they haven't shared in the benefits of increased productivity and the tax system is out of whack. that being said, i think we are in such a state now that taxes probably do have to go up across the board, not just for the wealthy. >> has the president helped or hurt that situation that just
laid out? that's what he will be judged on. >> i think he's helped it, but i agree with candy, i don't think that the president with the policies is really going to follow through with the rhetoric that was in that kansas speech and i don't expect however the presidential election goes in 2012, i don't expect to get a real change in the class dynamics in this country over the next couple of years. >> i want you to listen for a second. gop presidential contender mitt romney says when the going gets tough that president obama, watch out for class warfare. >> many think that because of the staggering failures, president obama will be easily defeated. but as you know, incumbent is rarely turned out of the white house and he will resort to anything. as you know, class warfare and demagoguery are powerful political weapons. >> did president obama make valid points this week? or do you also see this as straight from the class warfare playbook?
>> i thought that speech the president gave on tuesday was a very important speech. i doubt it was one of the pessimistic speeches since jimmy carter's saying the middle class can't get ahead any longer. and he did -- it was -- bob is right. it was class warfare. it was a call to arms for liberal democrats saying look, we are going to pit the middle class versus the rich. we will see whether that campaign theme works. throughout history it hasn't worked very well and it is a real question of whether americans go for the theme of envy or the theme of aspiration. i'm a big believer that americans don't hate rich people. they want to become rich. they don't hate people like steve jobs and bill gates but we will see about that. i will disagree with candy about something. candy, this election is going to be a rough run and on exactly what barack obama talked about on tuesday. and whichever party wins there is a big ideological difference between the two parties.
which ever party wins this election, will determine which direction this country goes. by the way if you look at what happened -- >> 60 votes in the senate, i would agree with you. >> you know, look, candy, look, we have h a big election in 2008. barack obama moved the country dramatically to the left. we had a massive increase in government spending and government takeover the health care system. that was because of what happened in the election. elections do have consequence. >> i think it is important, though, to take issue with the word "envy." i do not believe the poor and middle classes are envious of the rich. i would substitute for the word envy the word fairness. i think that this is going to be an issue about fairness going forward. >> steven, remind us how that speech turned out again? >> didn't work so well for jimmy carter. we've had this discussion for the last ten minutes or so about the deficit and nobody in washington even the republicans, are talking about cutting spending. the thing that's so amazing to me, we just had an election a year ago, remember that, where the electorate said overwhelmingly, stop the
spending, stop the bailout, get the debt under control and all we're talking about now is raising taxes before a dime of spending has been cut. >> many say nothing has been done since america lost its aaa credit rating. >> in the real world taxes are not being raised. people may be talking about raising taxes but talking about extending tax cuts. >> steven, bob, candy, nice to see all of you. >> good to see you. >> 30 days ago polls showed the republicans had a candidate defeating president obama. so why is there now correct another front-runner in the race for the gop nomination? one the white house may even be rooting for. we will tell you all about it next. redient plus the comfort of a stool softener for gentle, overnight relief of occasional constipation. go to senokot-s.com for savings.
welcome back to "your money." wnl one month ago a poll showed mitt romney defeating president obama for first time, one month ago. a republican with a business background beats an incumbent in bad economy. now it is newt gingrich, not romney wearing the hat. polls show gingrich is leading the pack by
double digit margins in three of the first four states that will hold gop presidential contests next year. cnn contributor will cain is with us now as is pete dominick, host of "sirius xm's stand-up." will, the same poll that showed romney beating obama a month ago showed gingrich trailing the president by 8 points. the romney is the candidate with the best shot to beat obama do these latest polls show republican voters now more concerned with beating mitt romney than president obama? >> yeah. it is a decent analysis. more concern with beating mitt romney than president obama. i would add a carve ve at. they want to beat president obama in a debate apparently. they want to beat president obama stylistically. nothing to do with substance. all the critiques as a voter of mitt romney exist for newt gingrich. not about character. the reason you fled from herman cain to newt gingrich can't be an increase in character value. it's about style. it's about your ability to debate and be bumped back. >> democrats want him because that style comes with distractions and i mean this
phrase, every rise of newt gingrich is followed by the fall of newt gingrich. >> yeah, reminds me of the villain in scooby-doo where he's mean and scares the heck out of scoobby but he loses when they take his mask off. that's happened to him and his career. what will is talking about that style, something that mitt romney is missing. i'm speaking generally, tea party extremist and republican and conservative primary voters love newt gingrich goes after president obama. a lot of people who hate president obama. newt gingrich calls him name, a -- >> when other -- >> romney is a good guy. >> he was the one refocusing the fire on the the and away from the other people on the stage and sort of looking like, you know, he was going to stand up and be the grownup who was going to bring it all back to the president. >> also disdain for the media and experts. >> right. right. i mean, played it wonderfully. played the whole thing wonderfully. >> can you believe six months ago, seven months ago, we were
talking about how his campaign staff left him because he was on a cruise with his wife. no one thought -- no one -- >> but why did it happen? because rick perry and herman cain imploded. that's why. it wasn't because of his -- >> all this talk about his ever-changing republican field or the frontrunner in the republican field, it takes some of the focus away from the economy, maybe, for the president. maybe the white house likes this searching and trying to find the leader in the republican party. >> yeah. that's another good point and the question becomes how long will it last? traditional political analysis is by mid january, early february, you will have what they call bandwagon effect. one guy win two, three states. voters coalesce behind him. the thought is that if newt can hang on for that long, six weeks, eight weeks, he can be the guy that has the bandwagon effect. i'm not sure. there is no cohesive candidate that can pull everyone together in this field. what if you have a fractured electorate for months into the summer? late spring . you're right, we've not talked about the economy for some time.
>> another republican presidential candidate, jon huntsman, says it is too late for president obama to fix this economy. >> the president had two years to get this economy right. to infuse a little bit of confidence in our direction. he has failed. that door has closed and it doesn't matter whether he goes to illinois, ohio, california, or new hampshire. nobody cares. nobody is paying attention. >> pete, president obama's campaign seems to be heavily focused on the idea, don't blame me, blame congress. blame the fact it was the worst economic downturn since the great depression. jon huntsman saying you had two years to fix it. it is not better. >> there is a lot of truth to that. what the obama campaign is saying. nobody wants to make this argument. it is not a great political argument. obama campaign section set. arab spring, what's happened in japan, you have talked about these issues a lot because you are not focused as much on politics as economics. these things affect the world economy. what happened in europe affects all of that affects our economy
and does not have as much to do with politics as politicians would like to make you think. >> things are getting better in the economy. you're seeing companies start to hire again. very low interest rates. but this president really can't try to stay, oh things are less bad, vote for me. >> that can't be the election strategy. you're right it was at some point going to be let's blame everything on congress not me, which has a historical president, harry truman's strategy in 1948. it worked but barely. that's when he held up the newspaper. we know this week after obama's speech he might have another strategy to invoke teddy roosevelt and say this economy is failing most of you. it's failing the middle class. going to point to inequality. i disagree with that wholeheartedly, i think that is indicting not just your opposition but the single great thing in this economy capitalism, that seems to be his new strategy. >> will and i have a huge
disagreement. we both agree there's an inequality, gap between rich and poor. will thinks so what. i think where that has happened in any society in government that's a breakdown. that's a huge problem for any civilized society. >> my analysis is so what but one caveat, don't think you can find one example of a country whose economy is based on a system that fills the cliche. >> you argue we're a merry crattic system. >> we might have been at one point. >> ask you -- i want to ask you about jon huntsman. people who are republicans, wall street republicans in particular, who will say to you, you know what, if gingrich can rise like this, why can't huntsman? >> wall street republicans -- >> i don't know if that's -- >> no, i would say -- wait. washington republicans kind of democrat, but they are republicans. >> there's so many loaded things there. i'm glad we're talking about
huntsman and should be talking about huntsman in the same breath as the economy. he has absolutely the best tax plan on the table. >> why is he pulling -- >> he's too smart. they don't care about expertise and content, they don't care about -- >> who is they? >> tea party extremists. they don't care about expertise. jon huntsman is a brilliant guy. i don't agree with his economic policies but these voters reject experts, people who understand these issues best. >> you kind of like him. >> i have to say this, one other substantive things, he is the only one republican or democrat to address too big to fail. if a bank is too big to fail it's too big to exist break up the bank. only one to say that and from a free market perspective. >> doesn't does not believe that president obama wasn't born here, socialist marxist. >> he worked for him. >> taken it too far. back to the style -- >> it's not about those issues. >> newt's rise. that's what newt's rise is, name calling. >> you said birthism. >> that is style.
it is style, a choice. newt gingrich said these things. people get fired up, romney is sayings the president he's a good guy, doesn't know what he's doing. that doesn't fly with red meat primary tea party extremists. >> anyway, bottom line, do you think huntsman could have a rise or this ises a far as he goes? >> too late because he's not taking the tactic that works. it's sad too. >> hail mary pass through new hampshire, small sliver, small chance. >> it would be great for america if you heard huntsman versus obama, their ideas. >> thank you. >> birtherism. >> was that sincere? >> passion. >> they're hugging it out. no, no kissing. family show. the eurozone crisis a situation that euro driven, euro driven nations need to fix but if they don't it will mean something to every american family. we'll explain next on "your money."
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europe's debt crisis threatens the global economy and could drag the united states back into a recession. richard quest, host of quest means business, is in brussels where european union leaders gathered this week to keep the european family together. a majority of european leaders, though not all, agreed to create a governmental treaty to increase fiscal unity and stabilize the euro zone. what's the feeling there? did european leaders, did they do enough? everybody at the dinner table happy? >> i think that they felt on the immediate crisis that -- put they have put together enough money, a couple hundred billion more euros for the imf to give to europe, increased the stability fund, so i think on the question of putting out the media fire, they are quite happy.
they are delighted they have so many of the european countries, the 17 plus 6 or so to come along on their fiscal combat. of course it is only the uk that is standing on the outside, basically saying no. but the -- i don't think the uk will be able to derail this. fiscal unity or coming together is so crucial to the successful working of the euro, to improve the dysfunctionality if you are like this currency, that this is a train leaving the station. >> jillian ted, the u.s. managing editor for the "financial times." i want to stay to that theme about the uk. david cameron, this is not a good deal for the uk. it is -- they are standing on the sidelines. the train has left. they are a very big and important player here. >> well, absolutely. and britain has had a very tortured, tangled relationship with continental europe now for decades. this just crystallizes attention building for a long time. there are many people in the
city of london extremely unhappy with the direction of regulation in the rest of the european onion and saying very clearly, we do not want to be part of that. for david cameron to not have taken a stance would have been incredibly popular domestically. at the same time, i think the scars of this confrontation are going to last quite a long time. i mean, sarkozy did not even shake david cameron's hand. i think a lot of resentment now. >> it's amazing, when you think over the past 60 years, europe has been trying to come together after a very painful period, and now some of these animosities and strains and rifts, i mean, this is money causes problems among friends and family, jillian. >> this is a crucial issue. one of the things that americans and noneuropeans have failed to understand a single currency prompt was about politics, not economics, about healing the wounds of world war ii and trying to bring europe together. now the interesting dynamic we've seen signs of the eurozone project, supposed to heal the wounds, has reopened the wounds
in a dangerous way. maybe, just maybe, this latest deal will actually create stability and at the same time we are still seeing very big fishes between north and south europe and the u.k. and the continent. >> then, richard, the americans come to them. treasury secretary, timothy geithner, toured europe this week, highlighting how important it is for the united states that europe succeed in all of this. does that tell you just how important europe is for the u.s. when instead of the -- treasury secretary here trying to sell the president's payroll tax holiday and working on that front, it affects every working family in america, he is in europe. >> the european union is the single largest economy in the world bar none. it's bigger than the united states. and it is -- the u.s. is single largest trading partner. statistics go on and on and on. if you take the totality of the union.
anything that jeopardizes the economic growth on this side of the atlantic, is going to be of serious concern. and that's why the fed came in with its cheap dollar swaps and that is why obama, the president, has said how serious it is. it is why tim geithner came over here. and i think ultimately it is why the u.s. wants the european union, the euro zone, to work as an efficient mechanism. but the truth is, christine, the truth is that they -- cannot get over because what they will not ask, they -- what they dare not ask the public of europe is do you want to move to a united states of europe, federal states of europe. but inch by inch that is what they're moving towards. it is the truth that dare not speak its name. >> isn't that the point -- from the very beginning there were people in this whole experiment,
the detractors call it an experiment, people who support it call it an evolution for europe and eventually that's where it was going, very slowly, but eventually that has to happen. >> well that is the argument you have been making. the former president of the european central bank came to new york and made a powerful point to a group of bankers which is if you look at the differential between unemployment rates and growth across the u.s. today, the regions, is actually larger than in the eu area. astonishing fact. the key point is that if you had a much more coordinated system, federal states of europe, you would actually have good chance of creating a much more stable union and real single currency zone. problem, of course, is there isn't a single treasury, there isn't a single issue of bonds and that is a fundamental issue that hangs over these talks. as richard says no one dared to ask the question. if they were to put that question to a vote, if there was actual lay referendum on the
crucial question across the euro zone today, it would show just how incredibly divided the euro zone is on that fundamental issue. >> different cultures, differ languages, different experiences. different allegiances over the past 100 years. >> different visions where the u.s. treasury should be going and irony is if you ask the question now you would end up reopening the wounds, not healing them. seeing finland doesn't feel much affinity with greece, portugal feels angry with germany, you really would reopen so many of the tensions that the eurozone would like to try to conceal. >> richard? >> and i think that when you then look at what has happened here, just in the last 24 hours, the way in which britain has stood up for a national interest, nearly derailed the project, which is going to be cobbled together because that's what they have to do now, make it up as they go along. they can't use the european union treaties to get physical
-- fiscal compact up and running, it is going to become a dog's breakfast of legal niceties as thry to make this thing work. >> a dog's breakfast. >> you always leave me with a wonderful little -- you're staying. stay where you are. in less than a year we'll know if president obama has four more years or if a republican will take over the white house. either way, any control the president has over the economy, it may be out of his hands. we're going to explain next on "your money." g up? ♪ get outta the car. get outta the car. ♪ are you ok? the... get in the car. get in the car! [ male announcer ] the epa estimated 42 mpg highway chevy cruze eco. from spending time together, to spending your lives together, chevy runs deep. [ pneumatic wrench buzzing ] [ slap! slap! slap! ] [ male announcer ] your favorite foods fighting you? fight back fast with tums.
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will help solve europe's debt crisis in a meaningful way, richard? >> if you look at what they decided on the core question, christine, of the financial crisis, as strengthening the stability fund, the bailout fund, lending money to the imf so they could lend it back again, doing all of those sort of things, then they may just have bought themselves time. the general view here is that it may not be the big bazooka of the ecb. european central bank coming in to do things. but it is the best they were able to get. the bigger, more serious, and difficult question, of course, longer term and reform of the euro. >> we have already established that it is a huge head wind to the united states. no question. treasury secretary is there right now. not here. is there anything president obama and congress can be doing at home right now to better position the u.s. to deal with the potential fallout from europe? >> i think there are three key things that they should be about. it is very important the u.s.
gets behind the imf right now. and actually shows that the imf can play a very important role in helping sort out the euro zone mess. that's tough for a lot of congress members to agree but important. secondly, it is very important that they reopen discussion about fiscal stability and about measures to deal with american debt problems. otherwise, you can guarantee the next year that will be a lot of discussion about whether the u.s. had heading in the same direction and, say, greece, or something like that. thirdly, these issues to do with the payroll tax reforms, stimulus questions, i mean, if the u.s. economy is softening and the recent data mixed, then it is going to be very important that the folks in war wash show -- folks in washington show they can take the initiative and provide some type of reassurance at a time when so many consumers and businesses are feeling very scared. >> the word you use initiative and reassurance, richard, it's interesting because on both sides of the aisles and both sides of the atlantic, there's this sort of gridlock.
when you look at the progress made in europe, this was -- i don't know, took, what, like five big summits in nine months and it took credit rating agencies weighing in and all this before you could get action there. same thing here. what is this dirt of political leadership? >> christine, i hate to correct you. but the numbers are eight summits. >> oh, goodness. >> five plans. 19 months of negotiation. and still they have not succeeded. look, i -- i had a smile a second ago. jillian has touched the third rail, as you might say, of this issue. she compared potentially, potentially, jillian, the united states, their problem with greece. that is the unspoken. that is the unknown. that is the great fear that if the u.s. does not deal with its
debt crisis, eventually, not now, not when it is the only game in town and safe haven much bonds and currency, eventually jillian is right, it becomes the water's lap upon the shores. >> all right. >> long way down the road but you've seen the last few weeks how easily confidence can disappear from financial markets and it's absolutely critical washington acts to make sure that doesn't happen here. >> thank you so much. richard quest, have a wonderful weekend. euro zone crisis threatens to send the world back into another global financial recession but you wouldn't know it looking at the stock market. is this your last chance to get out of stocks before it's too late? that's next on "your money." [ male announcer ] drinking a smoothie with no vegetable nutrition?
and i'm gonna track them online, too. nice. between those boxes and this place, i'm totally staying sane this year. do i smell snickerdoodles? maybe. [ timer dings ] got to go. priority mail flat rate shipping at usps.com. a simpler way to ship. we've been talking about europe's debt crisis and the effect it could have on the united states.
some are drawing comparisons between europe's potential collapse and the collapse of lehman brothers in 2008. here's what happened to the dow in the six months following lehman's collapse. it was a very, very rough time. pat mccall is here. there's been some good days and bad days. even if in the face of europe's uncertainty, the dow has been above 12,000. is this your last chance to get out when you see history like this? >> i look at this chart and i have a couple of different views. one it makes me sick. it kind of scares me. then i also look that back in march, we were below 7,000 and a year and a half later you doubled your money. it's tough to time it. >> now that market is right back up to 12,000, where it started. >> a lot of people were running for the exits in march. there's a good chance we could have a major pullback if something doesn't happen in europe. even here in the united states, political landscape right now is causing a lot of concern for investors. our confidence has been falling. the housing market is falling apart. last chance to get out? i don't know if you want to talk about that.
but you have to be nimble. you have to start looking at your portfolio, thinking, if you're concerned and a little too risky, start selling. >> let me clarify. or quantify it. if you need the use of your money in the next year should that money be sitting in an etrade account? >> your money should be in a savings account. unfortunately you're not getting much interest on that, maybe half a percent if anything. in the next year you have to have cash. if you have a 20-year time horizon, you can be in that chart. you can bounce back several times. dollar cost average in on the way down. >> other things we've talked about before, we talked about commodities. they were moving late as well. you got interest rates have been moving. the stock market doesn't move just by itself. it's a very interconnected kind of situation. what kind of ties do you see as we go into the end of the year? do you see commodities down, the stocks may be up a little bit because they are relying on governments to keep things afloat? what do you see? >> i think stocks will be up only because i believe something will happen in europe in the next couple of days if not the
next couple of weeks. they had an artificial rally where they flood the market with money. that will push stocks up for six to 12 months. you want to be in the market but be ready to get out. we may be talking in a few months, i'm saying this, but also then saying, you know what, let's start selling and taking a bit of our gains. >> one thing that's interest is treacherous. markets are treacherous. the european currency is only what 12 or 15 years old. to talk about how you'll fix it whether it's a two tier euro or one tier and the international trade treaty law ramifications. we just never -- we don't know what kind of -- as they call it -- what do they call it? headline risk there is over the next six months. >> that's a great point you make, the headline risk, because a lot of investors out there now, that aren't in the markets it not their jobs, but they have 401(k)s, they make their headlines and decisions based on
these. >> what's the bottom line? >> don't make your long term decisions based on these short term headlines. it's tough enough for you and i to decipher it. the average person will make emotional decisions and they're selling when that chart is down at 6,000 and trying to buy back at 12,000, unfortunately. >> we know a lot of people did that after lehman. a lot of people did that after lehman and they lost a lot or got out and just now thinking about getting back in again and they missed a big run. >> exactly. it is tough for the individual investor. you to somewhat weather this. i've been in this 12 years. this is the roughest year for me. it's tough to wake up and see the market down 300, the next day it's up 300. you don't know what to do from day to day. take a nap for a year, wake up in a year, and there is a good chance your portfolio will be higher. >> your beard is really long and you have more money maybe. nice to see you. both the u.s. and europe are trying to avert another financial crisis before it's too late. is the real problem not a budget
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you're familiar with america's growing debt and deficit. the national debt now topping $15 trillion. the size of our debt is forecast to be bigger than our entire economy by the year 2021. there's another deficit we can't measure in numbers and dollars. it's the deficit of leadership in washington. more dangerous to america's standard of living and our growth prospects than anything else facing us right now. a noted economist said it is impossible to make economic forecasts because washington has left us standing in quicksand. the very body that led to us a aaa credit downgrade has done
nothing in the last few months to fix it. their 12 person super committee was a super failure. the jury of 12 every day americans does better than that in courtrooms around the country every single day. consider the difficulty congress has in passing an extension of the payroll tax holiday. it affects every working american. both sides say yes we should extend it. but they are stuck in the quicksand of their own making. this week we saw a true rare moment of bipartisanship. two introduced a measure to pass a payroll tax holiday extension. in that measure, something each of them didn't like and they admitted it, but they would accept it for the good of working americans. if only their common sense would extend to their fellow members of congress, it would make for a priceless christmas present. unfortunately, i feel like a lump of congressional coal is coming our way. and that's my xyz. thanks for joining the conversation this weekend on "your money." ali will be back saturday 1:00 p.m. eastern sunday 3:00 p.m. and check out my new book with